Your campus is still provisionally classed. CapEx that assumes a final base or studied seat before verification cures is sequencing construction interest against a flip risk.

Batch Zero classification issued to TSPs and DSPs on September 3, 2026 was provisional. ERCOT Market Notice M-A080326-04 states that conditional inclusion sits behind verification, dynamic-model cures, or a Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) good-cause exception, and that failure to satisfy an applicable condition may disqualify the Large Load from Batch Zero. Loads submitted as base under Planning Guide Section 9.2.1.1(1) but conditionally classed as studied under Section 9.2.1.2(1) use the Section 9.3.1(2)(a) dispute path. Verification RFIs are still curing through October and November on the PUCT Project 59142 clock, with the Batch Zero Eligibility Verification Report due December 10. Sequence irreversible land and long-lead spend against that class-flip and fail-verification risk, not against a provisional label.

This piece is not the Batch Zero Verification exhibit and submitter-row article, not the State and Community Impact RFI with its separate October 12 close, not the tariff / hedge / covenant financial-exposure stack, not the customer-built switchyard drawdown cost-to-complete test, and not the interconnect-security cash / guaranty / letter-of-credit instrument election. Those siblings stay adjacent. This article is about construction-interest and CapEx sequencing while provisional class can still move base to studied, studied toward exclusion, or fail verification before land and long-lead commitments become irreversible. No campus megawatt or dollar totals are invented.

What provisional class locked on September 3

M-A080326-04 told each Interconnecting Distribution Service Provider (DSP) and Transmission Service Provider (TSP) that ERCOT had issued provisional classifications for the Large Loads those providers submitted into Batch Zero. Conditional inclusion can sit behind the Interconnecting Large Load Entity (ILLE) passing verification, curing dynamic-model deficiencies, or a PUCT good-cause exception. Failure to satisfy any applicable condition may disqualify the Large Load from Batch Zero.

Exclusion disputes go through ERCOT Alternative Dispute Resolution under Protocol Section 20.4. Base-to-studied reclassifications are different: loads submitted as base under Section 9.2.1.1(1) but conditionally classed as studied under Section 9.2.1.2(1) use Planning Guide Section 9.3.1(2)(a). The Interconnecting DSP or TSP must notify the ILLE within two Business Days. The ILLE disputes on the Planning Guide deadlines through the Interconnecting DSP or TSP.

ERCOT's Board Item 14 (September 14-15, 2026) repeats what capital calendars still miss: provisional classification (base, studied, or excluded) went to interconnecting TSPs on September 3; final inclusion or exclusion follows the eligibility verification and audit and is provided in December. Original PGRR 145 called for final classification on August 7. That date moved. Provisional is not final.

Why base versus studied is a CapEx problem

ERCOT's PUCT Project 59142 verification presentation defines classification as how a load is treated in Batch Zero: base load, studied load, or load that does not qualify. Classification feeds ERCOT's load forecast and reliability planning. It is also a practical gate for campus capital.

Base-path eligibility under Section 9.2.1.1(1) and studied-path eligibility under Section 9.2.1.2(1) do not ask for the same package. The same presentation maps requirements across paths. Site control, financial security confirmation, and CIAC satisfaction appear on multiple routes. Selected Advancing Large Load base paths also show long-lead equipment (at least 18 months), Notice to Proceed, and end-use customer confirmation. Committed Large Load base paths show site approvals or a no-approval statement plus binding general-contractor and substation-contractor contracts. Long-lead equipment attestation examples include purchase orders and delivery schedules.

That matrix is why a provisional flip from base to studied, or a fail that takes the load out of Batch Zero, is a construction-interest event. Purchase orders, contractor notices, land closings, and long-lead deposits justified on a base-path evidence story do not automatically survive a studied-path or excluded outcome. The Verification RFI User Guide makes the same point operationally: RFI sections vary by conditional classification. A Base Load Committed Large Load and a Studied Load Withdrawal-Limited Private Use Network do not answer the same portal.

Quarterly Stability Assessment (QSA) timing tightens the stake for base-path campuses. Classification as base load is a gate to QSA inclusion under Planning Guide Section 5.3.5. A large load must be in the applicable QSA before it can energize. Conditional base inclusion in the August 1 and November 1, 2026 QSAs was itself a good-cause exception while final classification waited on verification. QSA inclusion does not authorize energization and does not exempt the load from final base-load classification.

The CapEx clock (and the clock that does not)

On the verification workstream in PUCT Project 59142, ERCOT's presentation sets the CapEx-relevant calendar: August through September for sending Verification RFIs; October through November to complete information gathering through additional RFIs and opportunity to cure; December 10 to file the Batch Zero Eligibility Verification Report; December 17 for the Commission open meeting.

Market Notice M-A090926-01 states the exclusion rule: successful completion of verification is a condition for Batch Zero inclusion; failure to timely provide a complete response, or failure to otherwise satisfy verification requirements, results in exclusion. Complete responses, including supporting documentation and notarized attestations from the ILLE, Interconnecting TSP, and Interconnecting DSP, are due through RIOO no later than 10 Business Days after issuance, with at most a 5 Business Day extension. The portal tracks Original versus Follow-up rounds. Responding once is not finishing while October and November still exist for cure RFIs.

Keep the State and Community Impact RFI on a separate calendar. That disclosure clock, including its October 12 close, is a different workstream. Do not sequence land and long-lead CapEx as if answering the Community Impact RFI cures Batch Zero class risk, and do not rewrite this CapEx piece as a disclosure checklist.

What this piece does not claim

• It does not restate Verification RFI exhibit rows, submitter splits, or attestation packaging as the spine.
• It does not rest on the State and Community Impact RFI October 12 clock.
• It does not restate the four-instrument financial-exposure stack, switchyard drawdown cost-to-complete, or interconnect-security cash / guaranty / LOC election.
• It does not invent campus megawatts, dollar CapEx totals, purchase-order amounts, or client outcomes.
• It is labeled mechanics, not legal, tax, accounting, treasury, engineering, or regulatory advice. Executed utility agreements, the live RIOO RFI, Planning Guide Section 9, and PUCT Project 59142 filings govern.

CapEx sequencing checklist before the next irreversible spend

Before the next land closing, long-lead purchase order, Notice to Proceed that assumes a final Batch Zero seat, or construction-interest draw that treats provisional class as settled, put these on one page with a named owner on each line:

1. Provisional class named. Base, studied, or excluded as issued to the Interconnecting TSP or DSP on September 3 (or as later revised). Not "in Batch Zero."
2. Condition named. Verification pass, dynamic-model cure, good-cause exception, or none. Failure reads as possible disqualification, not paperwork delay.
3. Flip path staged. If submitted base and conditionally studied, Section 9.3.1(2)(a) dispute calendar and the two-Business-Day TSP/DSP notice duty are on the CapEx calendar. If excluded, Protocol Section 20.4 ADR is named separately.
4. Evidence path matched to class. Base-path long-lead, NTP, customer, contractor, and site-approval items are not interchangeable with studied-path packages. RFI sections follow conditional class.
5. Cure window owned. October through November additional RFIs and cure opportunity have a named owner. Follow-up rounds are expected.
6. Irreversible spend gated. Land closings, long-lead deposits, and contractor notices that cannot be unwound cheaply stay behind verification and class clarity, or are explicitly risk-accepted in writing.
7. QSA / energization not assumed. Provisional or conditional QSA inclusion is not energization approval and does not replace final classification.
8. Community Impact kept separate. The October 12 disclosure clock does not substitute for Verification cure or class finality.

If the capital line still says "Batch Zero secured" while the TSP letter still says provisional and the Verification portal still shows Draft, Returned, or Follow-up, construction interest is funding a label the market notices refuse. Owner readiness for the broader PGRR 145 stack (without collapsing this CapEx spine) is in the ERCOT PGRR145 Batch Zero Large-Load Owner Readiness Pack linked in Sources.

Related Sitebraid pieces (do not collapse)

• PGRR145 Batch Zero owner readiness pack (resource): https://sitebraid.dev/resources/ercot-pgrr145-batch-zero-large-load-owner-readiness-pack/
• Batch Zero Verification FS exhibits / submitter split (K40): https://sitebraid.dev/blog/ercot-batch-zero-verification-rfi-financial-security-exhibits/
• State and Community Impact RFI Oct 12 (separate clock): https://sitebraid.dev/blog/ercot-data-center-state-community-impact-rfi-oct-12/
• Batch Zero financial-exposure instruments (adjacent): https://sitebraid.dev/blog/ercot-batch-zero-financial-exposure-security-tariff-covenants/
• Switchyard drawdown cost-to-complete (K41): https://sitebraid.dev/blog/texas-data-center-customer-built-switchyard-drawdown-controls/
• Interconnect security LOC / cash / guaranty election (K46): https://sitebraid.dev/blog/texas-data-center-interconnect-security-loc-cash-guaranty/